While the Democrats and Barack Obama won big yesterday, even coming close to a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, Obama will find their options substantially constrained by reality.
Their handicap is the financial condition of the nation they'll inherit. Think of a trustee or conservator of a bankrupt company.
Those who fear a radical Obama miss the point of the lack of maneuverability of the next president. Behind the mortgage crisis looms the credit-card crisis, the student-loan crisis and the car-loan crisis. Sweating this mess out of the system will take two years of zero growth or contraction.
We won't have a Great Depression, for the government will irrigate our economy with money. But we'll have stagnation, followed by inflation.
So Obama will take office with unlimited political power but highly circumscribed practical power. He can pass whatever legislation he wants, but will be unable to indulge his ideology.
The irony will be bitter for the Democrats. Finally able to rise above the political limits they've faced, they'll encounter new limitations in the fundamental problems of the economy.
The Republican Party's role is to rebuild in the shadow of the frustrations of the Obama presidency. Just as MoveOn.org built the massive grass-roots base that yesterday impelled the Democrats to victory, so Republicans must go down to their grass roots, get in touch with their base and rebuild an opportunity to win national elections.
Power has been bad for the GOP, sapping the party's soul and eroding its purity. But opposition, especially when a socialist like Obama wrestles with the practical problems of capitalism, will be a heady experience for the Republicans. The conservative movement can be reborn in opposition in a way they never could have been as the governing party.
For political historians, it's worth noting that Obama hasn't scored the knockout that many predicted. As I write, it seems clear that John McCain will lose by a few points in the popular vote, not by the double digits so confidently predicted in the media polls. The fact is that most of the undecided voters went to the Republicans.
In the face of a mandate limited by reality and undermined by his inability to sweep the nation as had been predicted, Obama will face a difficult situation. As the economy falters, he'll find himself unable to raise taxes as he wants and stymied in his plans for government takeover.
A very tough future, for a man who won such a heady victory.
Originally published in the New York Post on November 5, 2008. Go to DickMorris.com to read all of Dick's columns!
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written by Robert Prol , November 06, 2008
I met with a NYS party leader to discuss how the Republican Party is squandering the Internet. He blank stared me and told me they had a Web site. I pointed out that it had 6 month old content. He missed the point entirely.
Until we can remove the moth balls from the leadership, we will continue to lose.
written by Stuart W. Mirsky , November 06, 2008
There are just so many times you can hit your head against a wall. After a while you either wise up and walk away or you pass out from the pain. -- SWM
written by Jay Golub , November 06, 2008
With the Senate in NY State going to Democratic control, most of the leadership in the GOP will just resign and leave. Sadly, there's little for most of these guys to get by staying around - in both pork for thier districts and cash for thiers - and thier supporters' - pockets.
It seems some people are already positioning themselves to take over.
Nationally, the GOP needs to get with the new reality - social issues are waning and market/fiscal issues are growing in importance. The GOP should have been moving in this direction aggressively for nearly a decade now - but, in reality, have been going the OPPOSITE way.
Bush won by pandering to social issue conservatism. That won't work anymore because the states the GOP used to count on, like NC, SC, CO and Florida, have too many Northeasterners, with their moderate social views, moving into these traditionally conservative locations.
The dynamics are changing and McCain, as exemplified by his pick of Sarah Palin, did not see it coming. McCain's people ran a traditional campaign - and ran it badly, BTW. He may have been able to squeak by if Obama wasn't so good at delivering his message of "change" and/or if McCain had just been a better topical pol than he is.
Either way, the days of running against Gay Marriage are over. The days of running for a reasonable, affordable and effective government are starting to hit their stride.
Obama will have many challenges, but the GOP can't just sit around and wait for him to make mistakes. The GOP needs to move forward aggressively and quickly to create it's own powerful brand so it can take advantage of Barack's and the Dem's mistakes as they start to pile up...
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