It's being reported that long-time Queens Assemblyman, Tony Seminerio, has resigned his seat due to a connection to influence peddling charges.  It is also being reported that he is facing a potentially difficult road ahead...

The charges against Seminerio allege he tried to sell influence in Albany to consulting clients and improperly collected about $1 million in fees from clients. He faces up to 20 years in prison if convicted. Those convicted of felonies cannot serve in the Legislature.

Will a special election be called and is poised to replace him?  Liz Benjamin floated a few ideas on the latter point in the post above...

Former City Council and state Senate candidate Al Baldeo (I'm not sure if he meets the one-year residency requirement); Community Board 9's Nick Comaianni; Seminerio's son, who ran for City Council in 2001 and was briefly mentioned as a candidate for former Councilman Dennis Gallagher's seat (now held by Democratic Councilwoman Elizabeth Crowley); Donna Marie Caltabiano, director of the Forest Park Senior Center; and - here's a wild card - Matt Gorton, an aide to Mayor Bloomberg.

This is a district that can be won from either side of the isle and traditionally the Republicans have endorsed the Democrat Seminerio, who sided with the GOP in Queens on many issues...

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written by Daniel Peterson , June 23, 2009

Is this the Astoria seat?

With many manhattanite transplants moving into Astoria, one would think there is an equal balance of liberal to fiscal conservative minded constituents changing the make-up of the district and it would not be out of the quesiton for a Republican to win with a low turnout Special Election. We would need a well versed and qualified candidate to raise enough money to reach out to potential Special Eleciton voters and take this seat.

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written by Frank Ammendolea , June 23, 2009

Tom Ognibene should run for this seat. It had a significant overlap with his Council seat, and he has the name recognition and gravitas to win. I have not always liked Ognibene's brand of "hardball" politics, but he is a conservative on the issues and could put an Assembly seat back in the Republican column for Queens county. I hope the GOP doesn't do something stupid like cross-endorse Seminerio's son - or run some hack. We saw what that got them with Gallagher.

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written by Daniel Peterson , June 24, 2009

i pulled up a map and came up with Woodhaven, Forest Park, Glenridge and Ridgewood being some of the little villages in the district.

I'm not sure Ognibene should jump from his council race and go into the Assemlby. I would have to believe there is an active republican in the area who is interested in the seat. Unfortunately, looking through the posted election results on the NY State website, it appears the Republican party hasn't always been on the ball running an opponent.

We'll see. Hopefully someone will step forward and let UE know.

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written by Jay Golub , June 24, 2009

"Unfortunately, looking through the posted election results on the NY State website, it appears the Republican party hasn't always been on the ball running an opponent."

Actually Danny, Seminerio and Serf Maltese and the Queens County GOP were relatively tight. the Assemblyman supported many of the key issues in that central Queens district. it's a district that would be difficult for a Republican to win, but a well placed conservative/moderately-conservative Democrat could win.

The rules for Special elections for Assembly are not run like Specials for City elections, so I'm not sure how you would handicap this race, but once the potential players step forward, we may have something to talk about...

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written by Daniel Peterson , June 24, 2009

I've stated in the past and briefly in an unpublished blog entry I might resurect. State office Special Elections are the perfect opportunity for all ballot Parties to run their own candidates. Democrat, Republican, Independence, Conservative and Working Families have an opportunity in State Specials to branch out on their own with their own issues on the forefront.

It would be nice to see all five ballot parties do their own thing in Specials and really drive the political debate locally. Unfortunately, they still choose to cross-endorse or choose not to run anyone at all.

I argued previously that the Conservative Party showed its lack of legitimacy when it failed to select a candidate for the 65 AD Assembly race Special back in 2006. There was also the 67 AD Special that did field a bunch of different candidates, but the Conservative Party remained silent on that one as well. Some Party, ain't it?

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written by Behold a Pale Horse , June 24, 2009

Seminerio was propped by a type of Republican who says, "We can't take him down. We need him in office to keep the Democrats from moving further to the left."

This type of mentality lead Republicans to help keep Joe Lieberman in office in 2006. He won re-election as an independent, meanwhile the GOP lost a bunch of other seats and the Senate.

I told this story once on the old site. I was involved with a new Young Republican club in the Bronx in 1993. That year, in addition to campaigning for Giuliani, I suggested we campaign against Councilman Mike DeMarco, a Democrat who received the support of the Conservative Party. One of the leaders quickly shot down my idea, explaining what a great guy DeMarco was and how we needed him to check Speaker Peter Vallone. As it turned out, DeMarco backed Giuliani that year, and Velella gave him the Republican nomination as well.

DeMarco's seat, which was tailor-made for a Republican until the 1990s, remained in Democratic hands with Madeline Provenzano and now Jimmy Vacca.

How many similiar opportunities did Republican idiots squander (or p***) away through the decades not just in NYC but throughout the state?

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written by Jay Golub , June 24, 2009

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/a...49981/1057

that didn't take long...

"A New York assemblyman accused of collecting $1 million from people who did business with the state has pleaded guilty to fraud."

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written by Jay Golub , June 24, 2009

"How many similiar opportunities did Republican idiots squander (or p***) away through the decades not just in NYC but throughout the state?"

Not sure, but there are other reasons why the GOP doesn't field candidates of it's own ilk - they don't have candidates who can actually win or run a competitive race.

I'm a proponent of ALWAYS running a Republican where possible, but when the Party can secure votes at different levels on issues of real importance by working with Democrats, the GOP would be foolish not to consider crossing party lines...

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written by Behold a Pale Horse , June 27, 2009

I disagree you on your last point. In conservative areas where Democrats have been elected, they often sought out the support of the Conservative Party or make some sort of arrangement with the GOP.

These are the areas where Republicans are likely to win. If we concede these areas, it becomes more difficult to win control of the legislature, where real reform can be promoted once we gain power.

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written by Jay Golub , June 27, 2009

"These are the areas where Republicans are likely to win."

I'm not interested in "conceeding" any district to the Left, BAPH - remember I ran twice on the Lower-East-Side of Manhattan understanding the limited chance of victory in a traditional sense - but to say that the 38th AD is a place where Republicans are "likely to win" is beyond a stretch of the imagination.

Much organizational work needs to be done to make that fertile ground for the GOP going forward.

I know we have some excellent GOP leaders in the area and, without giving names of potential GOP candidates, I'm sure we will field a solid Republican candidate in November.

I'm just saying that the GOP needs to lead on issues if it wants to turn the party around. If a Democrat will vote with us on most issues and can win, we should keep ourselves open to such a collaborative possibility...

(BTW, it appears that there will not be a special in this race as the November election is close and, I believe, by law the petitioning process already taking place will be the time for candidates to work to get on the ballot).

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written by Frank Ammendolea , June 30, 2009

Does anyone know on whose behalf the GOP and Conservatives are circulating petitions?

The identity of their candidate will tell you a lot about whether they really feel the seat is a pickup opportunity. And if they don't run a viable candidate this November, it tells you a lot about the (lack of) leadership in the Queens GOP.

This election is going to be low turnout as far as Democrats are concerned. Hard core lib Dems aren't super enthusiastic about voting against Bloomberg (they recognize that he's really one of them), and they're also not really enthusiastic about voting for him (he is after all still running as a Republican). So the "enthusiasm gap" we heard about during the 2008 Presidential primaries will be evident in NYC this year. This presents an opportunity for the Queens GOP to run a candidate who can appeal to the same middle class, conservative ethnic voters that Seminerio appealed to and maybe swipe the seat. This will not be the same scenario in a congressional or presidential year.

You cannot squander pick-up opportunities and call yourself a viable political organization. This seat was considered viable throughout the 1990s - to the point that Maltese and Ognibene were criticized for having a not so veiled non-aggression pact with Seminerio to keep him in the seat. He, in turn, provided ground cover for them in their races. Wonder how that ultimately worked out for the GOP - as Serf's seat is now held by a Dem as is Ognibene's.

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written by Reaganite , June 30, 2009

The GOP candidate is Donna Caltabiano, the E.D. of a senior center in the district. She is a long time fixture in the community have served on many local boards and organizations. She can make the race as competitive as almost anyone.

You analysis is interesting Frank but only partially correct. This was once a competitive district for Republicans. But like the maltese district it has changed dramatically. Hispanics are now the largest demographic group and dems outnumber reps 4-1.

This race would be far from a slam dunk even with the perfect most ideal candidate.

Where you are right is the lack of enthusiasm dems will have in november. Their elections are in september anyway. Once the primary is over, most dems will think their job is done. We have a chance at a pick up if everything breaks our way.

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