From Michael Patrick Leahy at http://www.tcotreport.com/election2009.html
7:14 am est
As temperatures turned brisk this morning in NY 23, Republican turncoat Dede Scozzafava took comfort in the knowledge that revenge is a dish best served cold. Analysis of last night's election results in which Democrat Bill Owens scored a surprising 50% to 45% victory over the Conservative candidate, Doug Hoffman, whose success forced her to withdraw on Saturday showed that her Sunday endorsement of Owens was the decisive factor in his victory.
Owens carried her three home counties that she represents in the New York State Assembly by a decisive 53% to 42% margin. This was an 11% margin increase from the 36% to 36% tie the Siena Poll released on Monday revealed. Scozzafava's vote dropped from 9% in the Monday poll to 6% in the actual results. Meanwhile, the 19% undecided in the three county region broke hard for Owens. 13% of the undecided went to Owens during a 48 period, while only 6% went to Hoffman.
Scozzafava's strenuous support of Owens during these critical hours was probably the most decisive factor in moving those undecideds. She recorded two robocalls, which were delivered throughout the district, and appeared with Owens at a local event.
One additional factor in Owens' strength in these counties was the endorsement of the local newspaper, the Watertown Daily Times, which came out in support of Owens Sunday morning after previously supporting Scozzafava. Indeed, it was the Sunday morning reporting by the Watertown Daily Times that Scozzafava was quietly telling friends to support Owens that signaled her dramatic public endorsement of him later that afternoon.
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written by Behold a Pale Horse , November 04, 2009
A win is a win. The Democrats won, capitalizing on the split on the Republican/Conservative side.
Now Owens to has to run for re-election in a still-heavily Republican district in 2010, a year in which Republicans nationwide and even NYS (given Astorino's win in Westchester and the still-undecided contest for Nassau County Executive) are expected to do well.
The Republicans and the Conservatives should unite on one strong candidate.
written by Jay Golub , November 04, 2009
The GOP was better off with the traitor in the race. Once the voters had to choose between a Democrat and a Conservative - the Conservative was bound to lose.
Just another mistake by the State GOP to have allowed this to boil over in the fashion it did.
The CP is dead. The GOP should stay clear of it from here on out...
written by osher g. , November 05, 2009
From a conservative (ideology not party) point of view, Owens is more conservative on a number of issues than Scozzafava. So to all who say that republican in-fighting caused the democrat to win, who says a Scozzafava win would have been better?
From a political perspective, while democrats in Washington are happy, neighboring democratic congressmen are not so happy. The 23rd CD is going to be cut up and divided between its neighboring districts after the 2010 census. If Owens wins re-election next year, he will probably want to run again in 2012 which means he'll have to run against an incumbent democrat in a primary. So if republicans want to run someone in the 23rd, next year will be their last chance.
written by NYPDIrish , November 05, 2009
Dreams can still be obtained & are alive here in America. Americans are PROUD of our Doug Hoffman, a previously unknown 59-year-old accountant from Lake Placid — who attracted and united social and fiscal conservatives from across this country!
Doug took on the National & State GOP & the Dem Parties by standing on principles and fought the good fight across this country. God Bless Doug Hoffman for being a great American hero! (Just coming up short by 4,000 votes of the 131,262 votes that were cast)
Political media must understand that the State Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava was NOT a moderate as they have been writing but a Liberal far to the left of Bill Owens who was the Democrat on all fiscal & social issues.
Dede was selected as the GOP candidate NOT by the people/voters but by the process of a backroom deal. To his credit, Owens simply had the ground troops last night from within the party to pull it off.
Jim Kelly - NY Conservative Campaigns & Activist
written by Jay Golub , November 05, 2009
"So to all who say that republican in-fighting caused the democrat to win, who says a Scozzafava win would have been better?"
I agree with that point, Osherg, but there are many who will blindly support their party over any ideology - largely because they get their paycheck through patronage.
If the NYC GOP could have only produced the same result this year by not support the Mayor's re-election. The GOP would be going in the right direction now, like you will see this upcoming cycle in the 23rd.
Essentially, the conservatives/real-republicans now will have something to rally against.
If Dede had won, the GOP faithful in the 23rd would have been stuck with an incumbent Lefty to support in 2010, which would not only hurt her chances of victory, but postpone any local GOP growth for the future...
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